Shortly after my last post Steve noticed and pointed out to me that the time stamps on my last three were all clicked in at the twelve second mark:
2019/05/31 21:39:12 UTC
2019/06/01 23:04:12 UTC
2019/06/02 07:54:12 UTC
Prompted me to relearn how to calculate probability. It's the product of multiplying the odds of the event, one out of sixty, the number of times of the repetitions, so one out of sixty cubed or 1 in 216000. But of course it could've been three straight any other seconds mark and the probability of that would rocket up to 1 in 3600.
My number of posts up to the previous one was 8511 and, if I'm doing this right, that gives you the same number minus two of runs of three - 1-2-3, 2-3-4... through 8509-8510-8511. So I probably have at least one other triple run of something somewhere else back in the record.
I think a lot about...
Tad Eareckson - 2013/02/08 20:44:05 UTC
This is THE BEST opportunity we will have in our lifetimes to kill this 130 pound Greenspot "standard aerotow weak link" bullshit.
...the odds of having damn near everything we hoped for to line up the way we needed it to in order to permanently demolish at least a couple decades worth of Standard Aerotow Weak Link total lunacy.
We didn't get it eliminated from circulation...
17-1821
http://c1.staticflickr.com/1/962/40373978690_9aef9ff7ca_o.png
33-1818
http://live.staticflickr.com/65535/47923578343_ce56d698b6_o.png
...but we destroyed a lot of reputations and drove public discussions of the focal point of the safe towing system into permanent extinction.
Skip to the four minute mark...
http://ozreport.com/23.112
Blue Sky in 360
...at which we finally get around to the actual flying stuff and you can start getting some half decent looks at what Knut's using for the focal point of his safe towing system - and the backup focal point of his safe system.
http://ozreport.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=31052
Poll on weaklinks
Davis Straub - 2013/03/06 18:29:05 UTC
You know, after all this discussion I'm now convinced that it is a very good idea to treat the weaklink as a release, that that is exactly what we do when we have a weaklink on one side of a pro tow bridle. That that is exactly what has happened to me in a number of situations and that the whole business about a weaklink only for the glider not breaking isn't really the case nor a good idea for hang gliding.
I'm happy to have a relatively weak weaklink, and have never had a serious problem with the Greenspot 130, just an inconvenience now and then.
I'm thinking about doing a bit more testing as there seemed to be some disagreement around here about what the average breaking strength of a loop of Greenspot (or orange) weaklink was.
And yet so far we have zero accounts of the Tad-O-Link...
02-00820c
http://c2.staticflickr.com/8/7252/27169646315_9af9a62298_o.png
http://www.hanggliding.org/viewtopic.php?t=31717
Weak link?
Davis Straub - 2014/08/20 19:48:26 UTC
Many of us are now using 200 lb test line from Cortland.
http://www.hanggliding.org/viewtopic.php?t=31747
Lockout
Davis Straub - 2014/09/01 15:22:41 UTC
I can tell you that I fly with a 200lb weaklink on one side of my 750lb pro tow bridle. I am happy with it.
...many of us suddenly started becoming happy with shortly after a Davis Link increased the safety of Zack Marzec's final towing operation being used as an instant hands free release.
http://www.hanggliding.org/viewtopic.php?t=14230
pro tow set-up
Jack Axaopoulos - 2009/11/10 13:36:53 UTC
I still dont know if I buy into the stronger weak link hypothesis.
Ive broken weak links on purpose at altitude by banking up and pushing out abruptly. That is a mechanism I want to keep, not give up.
Looks like you've given it up, Jack. Or at least nobody's ever once reported doing this with a Tad-O-Link. And if anyone ever did...
http://www.chgpa.org/forums/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=3600
Weak link question
Jim Rooney - 2008/11/24 18:54:27 UTC
I'm confused. I never said the tug's ass was endangered. That's why we use 3strand at the tug's end. Using 4 strand can rip things off (it's happened). When forces are achieved that do break a 3 strand, your tail gets yanked around very hard, which does have implications as to the flight characteristics and flightpath. AKA, I have no desire to allow you to have the ability to have that effect on me when I tow you... esp near the ground.
...he'd leave with the towline - courtesy of the Dragonfly's tow mast breakaway protector.
http://ozreport.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=24846
Is this a joke ?
Jim Rooney - 2011/08/28 10:40:24 UTC
Is a weaklink going to save your ass? Who knows? But it's nice to stack the deck in your favour.
Now flip the argument and you start to see the devil.
A glider can take a whole shitload more force than a weaklink can.
So, if you're of the "sole purpose" cult, then you see no issue with a LOT stronger weaklink.
Well, it won't take long with that system before we've got a lot more dead pilots out there.
So they can stuff their philosophical purity bs... cuz I have no desire to tow someone to their death, no matter how willing they may be.
I'm not playing with this stuff in my head and just dismissing it. There's been a lot that's gone into this system.
I've seen too many people walk the "strong link" road only to find out the reality of things.
Fortunately, they've been unscathed, but there have been a lot of soiled underpants in the process.
I'm happy to discuss this stuff.
But I'm sick to death of arguing about it.
Not a single skinned knee, no soiled underpants. Really astounding when one considers that it took about thirty seconds for both Russell Brown on the front end and Paul Tjaden on the back end to have near death experiences at Zapata after I forced the latter to go up with a Tad-O-Link close to eleven years ago.
This:
http://ozreport.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=24846
Is this a joke ?
Davis Straub - 2011/08/26 14:04:52 UTC
We had six weaklink breaks in a row at Zapata this year. Russell Brown (tug pilot, tug owner, Quest Air owner) said go ahead and double up (four strands of Cortland Greenspot). He knows I used his Zapata weaklink in Big Spring (pilots were asked to tell the tug pilot if they were doing that).
HUGE. And something I just noticed. If one takes this example of the semiliterate, deceptive, misleading crap Davis spews out as writing as literally as is possible... At the Zapata World Record Encampment which ran late June through early July all gliders doubled up for the remainder of the event - as in "We all play by the same rules, or we don't play." It wasn't until the Big Spring US Nationals flown 08/14-19 (ending a week prior to the above post) that we had to inform the tug pilot if we were opting to decrease the safety of the towing operation for both the Pilot In Command and passenger to near certain death level with our selection of a Tad-O-Link for the focal point of our safe towing system.
And I JUST figured out that we can pinpoint this arguably first major crack in the Standard Aerotow Weak Link Ponzi Scheme almost down to the fuckin' MINUTE. And along with that we can illustrate that the motherfucker was LYING to us and that all the douchebags participating in the Zapata effort - most astronomically significantly my former longtime u$hPa Regional (Nine) Director - have been letting the motherfucker get away with it for the past eight years. Big fuckin' surprises on both counts.
The relevant chunks of the readily available public record for every single day of the event 2011/06/21 through 07/06...
http://ozreport.com/15.122
The World Record Encampment
Davis Straub - 2011/06/22 04:20:32 UTC
Four Brazilians flew later (Andre didn't as he keeps getting sick from his young daughter in day care). Three reported 7 m/s (1400 fpm) lift in the afternoon in Zapata. One pilot had a weaklink break at 250' and got up very fast. They've never seen such good conditions.
Of course, it is very good in Zapata in the afternoon. We try to leave Zapata when it is very weak in the early morning, so we don't often get to experience the sensational lift here in the afternoon.
http://ozreport.com/15.123
The World Record Encampment
Davis Straub - 2011/06/22 15:00:59 UTC
Today the front has come through with rain, thunder, and lightning.
It looks like the weather improves quickly starting this afternoon...
http://ozreport.com/15.124
The World Record Encampment
Davis Straub - 2011/06/23 15:15:00 UTC
A down day at the WRE.
http://ozreport.com/15.125
The World Record Encampment - Friday
Davis Straub - 2011/06/24 18:07:53 UTC
Great cu's in light winds
BJ Herring goes for a 260 mile (418 km) triangle in his ATOS VR. He started at around 11:30 AM with a sky full of beautiful cu's.
This shot is taken looking east from near the hangar at around 10:40 AM.
Pete Lehmann was going to fly south launching a little after noon. Mike Barber was going to try out a Moyes Litespeed RS. He normally flies a Litespeed S. The Brazilians were just showing up around noon.
B.J. was going very slowly. Pete Lehmann was going to fly south launching a little after noon. Popped a weaklink at ten feet and landed on his belly on the payment, gouging his knee. He went to the emergency room for that. Three Brazilians (Eduardo, Paulo, and Alex) towed up between 2 PM and 2:30 PM into great lift and a cu filled sky. They might try a 100 KM triangle. Mike Barber flew his test fight (Moyes Litespeed RS) and came in and landed on his wheels on the pavement.
B.J. flew an out and return to the north. He was getting 600 to 800 fpm lift later in the afternoon.
http://ozreport.com/15.125
The World Record Encampment - Saturday
Davis Straub - 2011/06/26 03:01:41 UTC
The southeast winds and the over running return
With the morning winds and the cu's forming before sunrise, the Zapata we know and appreciate returns. I ride my bike out to the airport and still I'm the first pilot to get his glider positioned next to the runway at a little after nine. It's a constant back and forth to get all the equipment out of the hangar, setup and ready to launch.
BJ Herring is off first a little after ten. I'm next at 10:20. Mikey after me and then the Brazilians.
I tow east to 3,100' just above cloud base and then head northeast paralleling highway 16 toward Hebronville. I want to get as east as possible to counteract the southeast wind and be able get around Laredo airspace. BJ reported lift just below cloud base, but I didn't find any until I was down to 1,500'. It was weak and I was thinking that maybe I wanted to land close to the highway and not risk drifting into no man's land.
I stuck with the lift as I drifted northwest. Mikey came over to me and got in the 100 fpm 200 feet above me. BJ was out front doing well. Mikey and I climbed very slowly not finding any good cores drifting away from the paved road.
It continued this way for fifteen minutes until I didn't find the weak lift that Mikey did to my west. I landed a mere ten kilometers out from Zapata. Mikey got back up and continued north.
It took me four hours to get out from behind two locked gates with the very fortunate help of Chris who lived nearby. Mikey got one hundred miles out. BJ. stopped 165 miles out landing near Uvalde as the cu's ran out at the hill country and he wasn't going fast enough. The Brazilian landed around Laredo and were all picked up by six.
Sunday looks like stronger winds and south southeast. Nice cu's today, but not streeted up as the winds weren't that strong. They build tomorrow.
http://ozreport.com/15.125
The World Record Encampment - Sunday
Davis Straub - 2011/06/27 04:24:58 UTC
It started off as a record day with the over running in place and strong winds, and nice cloud streets setting up with a south southeast (170 degree) wind. After going down early yesterday I was set to go a little later, but the day was obviously much better much earlier. BJ Herring in his ATOS was launched first into a wicked cross wind...
http://ozreport.com/15.126
The World Record Encampment - Monday
Davis Straub - 2011/06/28 01:54:44 UTC
The thick (lots of vertical development) street persisted through most of the morning which encouraged BJ Herring to launch his ATOS (after flying for seven hours and 270 miles on Sunday) at around 9:30 AM. Robin Hamilton in his Swift was quickly behind him.
The rest of us waited a bit for the cloud base to rise from 1,800' AGL, which it did quickly. Mikey was off around 10:30 and I was after him at 10:45, assuming that I would find at 3,000' cloud base. Russell pulled me way to the east and I headed for a cloud street where after a thorough search found 600 fpm around 11 AM. Unlike on Sunday I wasn't settling for weak lift but searching around for the best of the lift and got a great reward.
http://ozreport.com/15.127
The World Record Encampment - Tuesday
Davis Straub - 2011/06/28 22:08:33 UTC
With a forecast for east winds, no one was ready to head north of such a day. That didn't mean that the conditions here weren't excellent for flying, and Pete Lehmann, BJ Herring and Gary Osoba did go flying while the Brazilians went to Laredo.
http://ozreport.com/15.128
The World Record Encampment - Wednesday
Davis Straub - 2011/06/29 20:29:23 UTC
Light winds, lots of cu's
BJ is out trying to fly a fast 100 km triangle. Gary and Robin Hamilton should be out there also.
http://ozreport.com/15.129
The World Record Encampment - Thursday
Davis Straub - 2011/06/30 17:52:55 UTC
Arlene arrives and brings rain
http://ozreport.com/15.130
The World Record Encampment - Friday
Davis Straub - 2011/07/01 22:56:52 UTC
Heavy rain
http://ozreport.com/15.130
The World Record Encampment - Friday
Davis Straub - 2011/07/02 20:15:08 UTC
Gary had to leave, so even with two vehicles down here and no driver he headed out in his sailplane with his new wife, Christen. Russell pulled him (and no one else) up behind the Scout...
http://ozreport.com/15.130
The World Record Encampment - Sunday
Davis Straub - 2011/07/03 15:42:22 UTC
Launched between 10:30 AM and 11 AM. At 11:30 Mike is 12 miles out and Pete 7. They are on a line to go well east of the Laredo airspace. Cloud base 3,400' AGL. 400 to 600 fpm lift, winds about 10 mph (light).
http://ozreport.com/15.131
The World Record Encampment - Monday
Davis Straub - 2011/07/04 19:46:22 UTC
The cu's come late
We are addicted to early morning cumulus clouds here in Zapata. When they didn't come this morning, we didn't go out to the runway (we were in the hangar) to get ready to tow up.
The cu's did start appearing far away around 11:30...
Pete's cow:
Photo by Gary Osoba
http://ozreport.com/15.132
The World Record Encampment - Tuesday
Davis Straub - 2011/07/06 00:57:47 UTC
Light winds but a nice over running
Pete and Mike hung in Zapata and went flying before 11 AM as I fled to Austin.
http://ozreport.com/15.133
The World Record Encampment - Wednesday
Davis Straub - 2011/07/06 23:05:56 UTC
They bail given the easterly winds
Given the reality of easterly winds and no good winds until likely Saturday, Mike and Pete head out from Zapata.
And what ACTUALLY happened:
http://blog.4herrings.com/2011/08/11/zapata-world-record-encampment-wre-2011-parte-dos/
Zapata World Record Encampment (WRE) 2011- Parte Dos | Cloud Base addict
BJ Herring - 2011/08/11
Zapata World Record Encampment
Stalwart of the WRE and friend Pete Lehmann let his knee have an affair with the runway. Needless to say it was short and dirty and needed antibiotics as the bone made contact.
Weak links were going like hotcakes so we doubled them up. On my Atos, I had my only break right as one hand let go of the cart so I held on like crazy to the other side and skidded to a stop.
As much as I didn't like it, a few of the yanks between me and the Dragonfly were like an accidental wheelie on a dirt bike (2 stroke) and would have broken the single links for sure.
http://live.staticflickr.com/65535/48019554778_e02bb13796_o.png
http://www.hanggliding.org/viewtopic.php?t=12682
Landing on your feet (for AEROTOW)- So Dangerous
Jack Axaopoulos - 2009/06/29 14:26:26 UTC
OMG!!! You dont even have wheels!!?!?!?!?
YOURE GONNA DIE FOR SUUUUREE!!!!
I have a brilliant idea. People who cant land for sh*t.... LEARN TO LAND
That way when a weak link breaks on you, ITS A NON-ISSUE. Genius huh???
http://ozreport.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=24846
Is this a joke ?
Davis Straub - 2011/08/26 14:04:52 UTC
We had six weaklink breaks in a row at Zapata this year. Russell Brown (tug pilot, tug owner, Quest Air owner) said go ahead and double up (four strands of Cortland Greenspot). He knows I used his Zapata weaklink in Big Spring (pilots were asked to tell the tug pilot if they were doing that).
Davis Straub - 2011/08/28 15:26:28 UTC
Then again, Russell Brown had us double up behind him after six breaks in a row at Zapata. We couldn't figure out why we had so many breaks so quickly. Maybe just coincidence.
http://ozreport.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=30971
Zach Marzec
Davis Straub - 2013/02/09 16:45:39 UTC
I am more than happy to have a stronger weaklink and often fly with the string used for weaklinks used at Wallaby Ranch for tandem flights (orange string - 200 lbs). We used these with Russell Brown's (tug owner and pilot) approval at Zapata after we kept breaking weaklink in light conditions in morning flights.
BULL FUCKING SHIT. They cut the effectiveness of the two and a half cent focal point of their safe towing system in half immediately after their final increase in the safety of the towing operation inconvenienced one of their venerable hot shot competitors with real world XC experience and accomplishments coming outta his ass out of undoubtedly two days worth of world class XC conditions.
BJ Herring - 2011/08/11
Needless to say it was short and dirty and needed antibiotics as the bone made contact.
We HAD THAT. We had it at 2012/05/16 23:37:27 UTC...
http://www.kitestrings.org/post2138.html#p2138
...well under nine months after Steve launched that DEVASTATING "Is this a joke ?" Davis Show thread. It's NEVER been out of my mind and I NEVER made the connection - until just now.